NBA Expert Picks and Best Bets | Picks-Nov-22

Thursday is an off day for the entire NBA, which means a big slate of games on Wednesday night. Knowing there is an off day ahead should inspire every team to put forth its best effort. From all of the games on the schedule, we came up with three picks that we think have the best chance of paying off. That includes a bet on the highly-anticipated game between the Celtics and Bucks.

Bucks +5.5 | -114 at FanDuel

This is a heavyweight matchup with both teams establishing themselves early in the season among the contenders in the Eastern Conference. While the Celtics have a better record, the Bucks are the hotter team, winning five in a row. Not only have the Bucks won five in a row but they’ve covered the spread in four straight games. Milwaukee has scored a minimum of 128 points in four straight games, winning three of those games by double figures. Damian Lillard is gelling perfectly with his new teammates right now and the Bucks look unstoppable.

On the other side, the Celtics haven’t covered the spread in three consecutive games, including Monday’s loss to the Hornets. They haven’t looked like themselves over the past week, so it’ll be tough to flip a switch and suddenly be at their best against another elite team. It doesn’t help that Al Horford and Derrick White are battling injuries. Frankly, the Bucks have a chance to win this game on the road, so there’s no way we can swallow the points in Boston’s favor.

Rockets -5.5 | -110 at BetMGM

While Houston has lost three in a row, those losses all came as road underdogs against the Clippers, Lakers, and Warriors. The Rockets have faced a brutal schedule during the early portion of the season but have come out of it 6-6. It’s also worth pointing out that they’re 6-1 at home, including wins over the Nuggets and Lakers. They play their best basketball at home with Fred VanVleet shining in the point guard role.

On the other side, the 3-10 Grizzlies have been a disaster early in the season without Ja Morant. To be fair, all three of those wins have come on the road. But Memphis is still just 3-4 against the spread on the road. They are also 2-7 against the spread in all games when the spread is five points or less. Plus, on top of Morant’s absence, the backcourt has been further depleted by injuries to Marcus Smart and Luke Kennard. Given Houston’s success at home this season, the Grizzlies could get run out of the building, so I’m sensing a comfortable win for the Rockets.

Spurs +8.5 | -110 at DraftKings

At some point, things have to get better for the Spurs, who have lost nine in a row. Monday’s 25-point home loss to the Clippers might be a low point for them. But you always expect Gregg Popovich to get a response from his team after facing adversity. That may not translate to a win, but the Spurs should put up more of a fight on Wednesday and keep this game close.

After all, the Clippers aren’t necessarily a trustworthy favorite. They are only 4-4 against the spread when favored this season, losing three times straight up. Playing the struggling Spurs on Monday may have masked some of their struggles this season, especially while trying to mesh with James Harden. They could be ripe for an off-night, making it tough for them to cover the spread.