NBA Expert Picks and Best Bets | May 28

Barely a week after their dramatic series win over the Nuggets, the Minnesota Timberwolves are facing elimination heading into Tuesday’s Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals against the Dallas Mavericks. Dallas has won the first three games of the series, albeit by tight margins, putting the Mavs one win away from the NBA Finals. Will the Mavericks complete the sweep on Tuesday or can the T’Wolves win to stay alive and send the series back to Minnesota? Find out as the US Legal Sports Betting team shares three picks for Tuesday’s game using odds from three of the top sports betting apps. 

Timberwolves ML, +110 at bet365

Frankly, the Timberwolves are too good to get swept. They’ve played too well all season just give rollover despite the 3-0 deficit. On top of that, the games in this series have been competitive, so it makes sense that Minnesota will be able to scratch out a win sooner or later. At most online betting sites, the line for this game is shrinking, meaning most of the betting is backing the T’Wolves. We’ll jump on the bandwagon, but we’re also going to take the moneyline because there isn’t a ton of value in taking the T'Wolves as two-point underdogs.

Let’s not forget that Minnesota was 12-12 straight-up during the regular season as a road underdog. Believe it or not, that was the second-best record in the NBA as a road underdog. Prior to their loss in Game 3, the T’Wolves were 5-1 straight-up on the road during the playoffs. That makes us think that Minnesota is more than capable of taking Game 4 and extending the series.

Under 209.5 | -105 at BetMGM

All three games in this series have gone over the point total. However, the over/under continues to rise higher, which makes us think this is the right time to take the under. Down 3-0 in the series, the Timberwolves know they need to step things up defensively. Plus, the Mavs are due for a little bad luck offensively, which could keep the score in Game 4 a little lower than the last few games.

Keep in mind that these teams aren’t exactly running up the score. Two of the three games have ended with 217 total points or less. Keep in mind that more than 58% of Dallas’ home games during the regular season stayed below the point total. Before this series, the Mavs were 5-7 O/U in the playoffs, so it makes sense for things to even out again with a low-scoring game.

Anthony Edwards Over 6.5 Assists | -129 at BetRivers

During the regular season, Edwards averaged just 5.4 assists per game. But his assist numbers have jumped quite a bit during the playoffs. Part of that is because he's playing more minutes. But he’s also had to play more of a playmaker role with teams trying to prevent him from scoring, especially during the Western Conference Finals.

In this series, Edwards has had at least seven assists in every game. He’s now gone over 6.5 assists five times in his last six games. As a scorer, Edwards has been wildly inconsistent, sometimes scoring over 40 points while failing to reach 20 points in other games. But he’s been a remarkably consistent distributor deep in Minnesota’s playoff run, which is why we view this as a safe bet for Game 4.