NBA Expert Picks and Best Bets | May 22

The Eastern Conference Finals got started on Tuesday night, but on Wednesday night, it’s time for the Western Conference Finals to begin. In such a loaded conference, not everyone picked the Dallas Mavericks and Minnesota Timberwolves to get to this point, but that’s the matchup we have. For the series opener, the USA Legal Betting team has three picks for the Mavs and T’Wolves. The odds are from three different sportsbooks, but feel free to explore the top sports betting apps and online betting sites to find one that fits what you want.

Mavericks +4 | -105 at bet365

This is just the second time in franchise history the Timberwolves have been to the Western Conference Finals. It’s a big deal, especially with the T’Wolves playing at home a few days after that dramatic comeback win in Game 7 of the conference semifinals. Therein lies the problem for Minnesota. The crowd and the players could be too hyped for this game. Without enough time to enjoy their series win over the Nuggets, the Timberwolves look vulnerable for a letdown. They didn’t win Game 1 at home of their previous conference finals appearance, and the same could happen on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, Luka Doncic and a few other members of the Mavs were in the conference finals two years ago. They should be able to handle the moment, especially with an extra day of rest to come down from their series win over Oklahoma City and prepare for the Western Conference Finals. Equally important, the Mavericks have won three of the four playoff games in which they’ve been the underdog. That’s enough for us to lean toward Dallas while also being tempted just to take the moneyline.

Under 207.5 | -110 at BetMGM

During the regular season, Dallas stayed under the point total better than everyone but Miami, New Orleans, and Denver. Oddly enough, several of the Western Conference heavyweights excelled at hitting the under. That’s just one reason why we’ll favor the under in Game 1. In the last round, four of the Mavericks’ six games stayed below the point total because the losing team struggled to reach 100 points.

Likewise, the Timberwolves saw four of their seven games in the previous round fail to reach the point total. Neither team reached 100 points in Game 7 while the losing team cracked 100 points just once in seven games. Since we’re expecting a close game, it’s hard to envision this game reaching 208 total points if the loser stays below 100 points, which is why the under feels like the safer bet.

Anthony Edwards Under 28.5 Points | -113 at BetRivers

There has been virtually no middle ground for Edwards during the playoffs. He’s been all over the place. Edwards has scored at least 40 points three times in 11 games. But he’s also been held below 20 points four times in 11 games. In fact, he was held to 28 points or less in five of the seven games against Denver.

Edwards, just like all of the T’Wolves could have a hard time keeping his emotions in check in Game 1. We saw that in Game 7 against the Nuggets when Edwards scored just 16 points on 6 for 24 shooting. He might have his moments in the clutch, but Edwards could struggle to score consistently, especially since the Mavs know he’s the player they want to contain. Therefore, we’re banking on both Edwards and the T’Wolves to have an off-night in Game 1.