NBA Picks & Parlay of the Weekend | May 11

Things are heating up in the conference semifinals of the NBA playoffs. On Thursday, the Dallas Mavericks evened up their series with the Oklahoma City Thunder after losing Game 1. It looks like this could end up being the most intriguing of the four conference semifinals with the series moving back to Dallas for Game 3 on Saturday. In preparation for Game 3, the USA Legal Betting team is putting together a same-game parlay for the matchup. While there are plenty of sports betting sites available, we chose to get our odds for this parlay from BetRivers.

Thunder +3 | -108 at BetRivers

The Mavericks may have gotten the better of Oklahoma City in Game 2, but the Thunder is still the better team in this series. Even on the road, there is a lot of value in Oklahoma City being listed as an underdog. We’re almost tempted to take them to win straight up, but we’ll take the extra points. The Thunder has the type of depth and balance that can win playoff games on the road. They had no problem winning two road games in the First Round and also won one of their two trips to Dallas during the regular season.

As for the Mavs, they are a little too reliant on Luka Doncic. A team like that is hard to back as a favorite against elite competition. While P.J. Washington delivered a huge game on Thursday, he's unlikely to repeat that type of performance. Meanwhile, Kyrie Irving has been all over the place during the postseason. His inconsistency in big games is concerning and makes it hard to trust the Mavericks, which is why we're happy to lean toward OKC in Game 3.

Over 128.5 | -110 at BetRivers

Game 2 was a little more high-scoring than Game 1, which is a trend we think we’ll see in this series moving forward. With the over/under for Game 3 being roughly the same as it was for Game 3, we think Saturday’s game will hit the over whereas Game 1 stayed under the point total. There is too much offensive talent on both sides for either team to stay much below 110 points.

It’s worth mentioning that Dallas has now hit the over in four of its last five games dating back to the last series. That’s a telling stat for a team that only hit the over 45% of the time during the regular season. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City was 24-18-1 O/U as the road team this season. Only three teams hit the over more frequently on the road. The Mavs playing at home probably helps their offense more than it hurts OKC, which is why we’re leaning toward the over.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 30.5 Points | -143 at BetRivers

As dynamic as Gilgeous-Alexander can be, going over 30 points is asking too much. Granted, he scored 33 points in Game 2. But that was just the second time in six playoff games he topped that number. It’s hard to see him doing it in back-to-back games, which is something he’s only done twice since the end of February. 

Despite a pair of high-volume scoring games in the first two games of this series, Gilgeous-Alexander also has 17 assists over two games. He’s been a willing passer, in part because the Dallas defense is trying to make him pass more and shoot less. Even if the Mavs don’t completely stop him in Game 3, going over 30 points feels unlikely.