NBA Betting: The Value in Betting Against Victor Wembanyama To Be Rookie of the Year

Victor Wembanyama has been even better than expected through the first few weeks of the NBA season. While his numbers are impressive for a 19-year-old rookie, a rival has emerged from the field in Chet Holmgren. The Thunder star has been incredible after missing his rookie season with an injury, and it suddenly makes the NBA’s Rookie of the Year race seem far from over.

While Wemby remains a big favorite to win the award, Holmgren’s odds suddenly make this a much closer race and give bettors a chance to win big. Below, we will break down the odds for the ROY award along with why we are betting against Wemby at NBA betting sites this season.

While Wemby is still a significant favorite, the odds for Chet have jumped up since the start of the season. Some US sportsbooks have changed their bets to Wemby vs the Field, DraftKings continues to offer odds for each player. No one else is priced under +3000, signaling that US sportsbooks don’t believe anyone is close to being in this season’s ROY race.

Let’s start with Victor Wembanyama. The Spurs’ center is averaging 19.7 points, 8.8 rebounds, 2.4 blocks, and 1.1 steals. The 19-year-old is making 44.7% of his shots, but just 29.8% of his threes. While he could stand to be more efficient, it is hardly a surprise given his age. The rest of his stats have surpassed the high expectations set in the offseason, though it isn’t translating into wins.

OKC power forward Chet Holmgren has also surpassed expectations in his first full NBA season. The 21-year-old is averaging 16.4 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 2.3 blocks. While those numbers are behind Wemby, Chet has been a much more efficient scorer. He is making 54.9% of his shots from the field, and 50% from three. He leads the Thunder in rebounds and blocks and is a significant reason for their 6-4 start.

While most of his stats are below Wemby’s, Chet has the advantage of being a more efficient scorer. It shows that he is impressive and intelligent scorer, and it should lead him to build confidence and post higher point totals as the season progresses. While Wemby’s efficiency numbers aren’t horrible, but they are significantly lower than Chet’s.

Another advantage that Chet has is the team he plays for. The Thunder have a ton of young talent, led by point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams leading the way. While that limits the number of shots he sees, it does open up more room for him on the floor and lets him avoid the double-teams that Wemby has been seeing.

It is almost certain that the Thunder will finish with a far better record than the Spurs this season. Chet could end up being the key piece that turns OKC from a play-in team to a full-fledged contender. If that happens and Chet can continue to improve on his stats, it would likely be enough for the young big man to be named the 2023 Rookie of the Year.