MLS Parlay of the Week | Week 17

The international break is upon us, meaning most MLS teams will be at less than full strength for the next few weeks. Our US Legal Betting have expressed their gratitude, as the shakeup to the league allows for some valuable markets across the top online betting sites. Both Massachusetts sportsbooks and New York sportsbooks will likely see increased action this week thanks to the cross-state rivalry between the Revolution and Red Bulls. Minnesota will play host to Dallas in what would be a lopsided affair were it not for the abundance of key players missing from the home side. And expect goals to pour in when Sporting Kansas City hosts Seattle, as both sides have been offensively poignant and defensively dull.

2H Most Goals (+100) | BetMGM

New England finally won a game last week, defeating fellow bottom-feeders Nashville SC 2-1. One win, however, wasn’t enough to pull them out of last place, as the Revolution remain at the very bottom of the Eastern Conference and all of MLS. 

The Red Bulls maintained their winning ways with a 1-0 victory over Orlando City. It was yet another example of the Red Bulls dominance on defense. New York has allowed one or fewer goals in each of its last four games, winning three of them. The team’s only defeat came at the hands of rival NYFC on Derby Day.

If both teams were at full strength, it would be easy to slam a bet on a Red Bulls outright win, but that just isn’t the case. Every team with a Saturday fixture this week is going to lose players to international matches. In this matchup, Red Bulls will be without a few more key players than New England. So, rather than worry about who will come out on top in this one, we turn to the stark differences in how each team performs by the half.

The Revs have a massive gap between their scoring output in each half. In the first half of games, New England allows just .5 goals per half. In the second half, that number jumps up to 1.3 goals. In short, of the 2.7 goals per game scored in Revolution matches, two-thirds of those scores occur in the second half.

While the Red Bulls splits aren’t quite as far apart, there is still ample evidence that shows more goals will come in the latter part of the game. New York’s fixtures this season have produced 3.19 goals per game, with two-thirds of those goals coming in the second half.

Both Teams To Score No (+120) | BetMGM

As the theme of the week continues, Minnesota will also compete without a good number of key players on Saturday. Currently in 7th place in the league, Minnesota is a much more talented side than its opponent. Dallas is the 5th-worst team in the league and has struggled as much as any team to finish its chances. Heck, it hasn’t even created many chances with the 2nd-fewest expected goals per game.

Dallas has also shown itself to be the worst road team in the league. It has the worst record away from home and fewer than one goal per match. Nico Estevez’s squad has scored just six goals in eight fixtures on the road.

As was the case with the Red Bulls in their match with New England, if Minnesota was at full strength, it would be an easy choice on the moneyline. However, international sides have plucked many MLS players away for the next few weeks, and few teams will be impacted more so than Minnesota. Of the team’s 27 goals scored this year, 18 have come from players they won’t have on the pitch until the international break is over. It’s tough to project many goals from a team missing the bulk of its attacking firepower. Add the fact that Dallas has been much better on defense than offense and we’ll take at least one of these two teams to stay off the scoreboard.

Both Teams To Score Yes -150 | BetMGM

No MLS side has fared worse than Sporting Kansas City over the last two months. KC has lost seven straight matches and hasn’t pulled in three points in any of its last 10. The team’s problems exist predominantly on the defensive third of the pitch, where it hasn’t recorded a clean sheet in its last 13 games in MLS play. Contrast that with the fact that it's scored at least one goal in 14 of its last 15 matches and SKC would likely sit higher than 28th in the league were it to hold its ground on defense.

Seattle has been disappointing in its own right, currently 10th in the West and 20th in the overall standings. The Sounders haven’t lost in three straight matches, with draws against Vancouver and Real Salt Lake, in addition to a victory over St. Louis City. While Salt Lake has had a stellar season, it’s tough to afford Seattle too much credit in beating the lowly Whitecaps and drawing with struggling St. Louis.

SKC has played in 13 straight matches with both teams scoring, and 14 of its last 15 have seen the same result. Seattle may appear the better team on paper, but it has struggled mightily to keep its opponents off the board. Let’s bank on both these teams finding the back of the net in this one.