MLS Parlay of the Week | Week 13

MLS action returns this weekend with a tasty slate of matches following a busy midweek set of fixtures. Our USA Legal Betting experts put togther our parlay of the week with three exciting matches, including the New York derby between NYFC and the Red Bulls. They also dove into Columbus vs Chicago, and the L.A. Galaxy in a cross-country matchup with red-hot Charlotte. Each of these bets offer plus-money odds as single plays on the top soccer betting sites, and an enticing +900 return as a multi bet. Let’s dive into how I’m attacking each game’s odds and lines in Week 13.

LA Galaxy Draw No Bet (+110) | BetMGM

Here we have a classic “buy low, sell high” scenario between the L.A. Galaxy and Charlotte FC. As a bettor seeking top value, simply looking at recent box scores would do you an injustice and cost you money. Charlotte enters this contest having won three games in a row and by all intents and purposes, looks to be the stronger side. Especially when you consider the Galaxy have been a drawing machine, settling their last three matches in a tie.

Before taking that information to predict a Charlotte victory, however, make sure to look more deeply at the numbers and recent opponents.

During Charlotte’s three-game winning streak, the team has overcome Chicago (currently in 28th place), Nashville (19th), and Portland (21st). It won all three games to nil, scoring twice against the Timbers and once against both Nashville and the Fire. FC has been unimpressive on its home turf, ranking 26th in expected goals and 22nd in expected goals against.

Los Angeles has been the complete inverse in terms of expected outcomes versus actual ones. The Galaxy have the third-best expected goals per game average, despite failing to pick up a victory during the month of May. I’m buying the dip in the Galaxy’s stock and selling Charlotte FC’s over-inflated success.

New York Red Bulls Draw No Bet (+120) | BeMGM

It’s derby day in the Big Apple as these same-city rivals face off in what has often been an exciting affair. This matchup shows some similarities to the aforementioned Charlotte vs LA Galaxy game in that NYFC appears to be much stronger on the surface. That is, until you dive more deeply into recent history.

FC has won five of its last six games, but its victories appear a bit fraudulent having taken advantage of poor competition. The Red Bulls are riding a little two-game win streak of their own, rocking the net for eight combined goals over that time.

It’s fair to argue that the last two matches were more in line with preseason expectations for the Red Bulls, as they seem to be rounding into form as the season nears its midway point. 

This turnaround for the Red Bulls isn’t unexpected to those who follow them closely. Sandro Schwarz’s side have the highest differential between expected goals allowed and actual goals against. Simply put, they were fairly unlucky through the first third of the season as teams finished a number of chances that could’ve easily gone the other way.

Oddsmakers appear to be applying the normal home-field advantage to this line as well, despite both teams playing the same city. As a result, NYFC’s odds to win are a bit inflated when you consider Red Bull players won’t have to travel to a different state for this match.

Columbus (+125) | BetMGM

Chicago’s schedule isn’t offering any favors to the reeling Fire. Manager Frank Klopas’s team is fading from contention fast, currently in the midst of a three-game losing streak. It’s been six matches since the Fire have won a game outright. Sadder even is the one goal it’s scored during that span.

Home field advantage is foreign to Chicago as it hasn’t netted a goal in four straight games on its own field. It’s not like they’re underachieving relevant to goal-scoring chances, either. The Fire sit 24th in expected goals at home, tied for 5th worst in the league. It’s also been susceptible to allowing scores, ranking 25th in expected goals allowed at home. 

Unlike Chicago, Columbus appears to be peaking at just the right time. For a while, it seemed like the Crew were going to draw far more often than they might win this season. After a tough 2-1 loss to cross-state rival and reigning champion FC Cincinnati, Columbus picked up a nice win against league pin cushion, Montreal. Considering the Crew have the best expected goals against average and rank eighth in expected goals scored, it’s time for them to break out and start making progress in the standings.