Euro 2024 2024: Italy vs Albania Prediction, Odds & Best Bets

Italy kicks off its quest for back-to-back European championship trophies with a match against undermanned Albania. If Italy's history against its opening opponent is any indication of how this match will play out, La Squadra Azzura should get off to a quality start. The two nations have faced off four times since 2014, with the Italians winning all four. What's more, they've won in dominating fashion, scoring seven times compared to Albania's one goal. Interestingly, a number of Albanians play their club football in Serie A, so they should be familiar with many of their opponents. Check out how our US Legal Sports Betting soccer pros are betting this one, including they're projected lineups and overall game theory. Plus, don't miss out on the best sportsbook bonuses and promotions available in celebration of this year's tournament.

Odds have been provided by BetMGM. Read our BetRivers review.

As always, make sure to shop the lines across all of the top soccer betting sites available in your area.

Italy

Currently the owners of two European championships, Italy has its eyes on a third title that would tie them with Germany and Spain for the most ever. Hoistin a second straight trophy would also make it just the second time any nation has won two in a row, the other such instance coming in 2012 after Spain won for the second consecutive season. Luciano Spalletti will lead the Azzuri for the first time in this tournament after former head man Roberto Mancini failed to qualify his team for the last World Cup. Spalletti was shown no favors, however, as the defending champs will have to navigate a true group of death to return to the elimination round. Albania is clearly the odd team out, so look for Italy to seek as lopsided of a victory as it can muster to help itself break any potential draws with Spain and Croatia.

Team news: The Azzuri will be forced to play without the likes of a few key players this year. Francesco Acerbi (groin) and Giorgio Scalvini (ACL) both had to withdraw from the team due to injury. Nicolo Zaniolo, Domenico Berardi, Destiny Udogie and suspended midfielder Sandro Tonali will all miss at least one game as well.

Predicted Lineup: Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Buongiorno, Bastoni, Dimarco; Cristante, Jorginho; Frattesi, Pellegrini, Chiesa; Scamacca.

Albania

Albania may be outmatched overall by a talented Italian side, but the Eagles saw plenty of success during qualifying. After suffering an opening game defeat at the hands of Poland, they went undefeated through their next seven games, finishing in front of Poland and the Czech Republic. Despite a brutal draw playing in Group B, many Albanian players will be famililar with the Azzuri and the Italians style of football. Nine of the players on the team's roster play their club football in Serie A.

Head man Sylvinho will be the first Brazilian manager to lead a team in the Euros. He will look to build on the Albanian successes from the 2016 tournament, when Gianni De Biasi propelled his team to its first ever Euros win with a 1-0 victory over Romania in the final group match.

Team news: The Eagles enter Euros 2024 at full strength with no major injuries or suspensions to their key players.

Predicted Lineup: E. Berisha; Hysaj, Ismajli, Djimsiti, Mitaj; Asllani, Ramadani; Asani, Bajrami, Seferi; Broja

• H2H – Italy has won all 4 meetings since 2014, outscoring Albania 7-1 overall.
• Italy – Undefeated in its last 6 matches with a 4-2-0 record.
• Albania – 2-2-2 in its last 6 matches
• Player To Watch – Goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma will need to come up huge for Italy to have a chance at back-to-back titles. Donnarumma won player of the tournament during the 2020 Euros.

A draw would be massive for Albania and equally as devastating for the Italians. Italy's in-game strategy relies on its defense to press up and maintain a high level attack that starts wtih crisp passing in the middle third of the pitch. The Azzuri will look to find it's wings deep in the corners for quality crosses that turn into goals. This tactic worked to the tune of 12 expected goals over their six qualifying matches.

Albania may be more difficult to score on than most people think, however. While the Eagles play a passive style on offense, they man mark all over the field, applying a ton of on-ball pressure. They only allowed 0.98 expected goals per game per 90 minutes, meaning the defense is incredibly effective. That said, it'll likely be difficult for them to create chances when they do obtain possession of the ball against a stiff Italian defense. While Albania managed to put away 12 goals during their qualifying matches, seven of them were considered low quality.

Under 2.5 Goals (-125) | BetRivers

Expect the pace of this opening round match to stay relatively slow. Italy will almost certainly dominate possession, most likely by a hefty margin around 65-35. It's difficult to speed up the Azzuri as is, and the Albanians' passive attack won't even be looking to rush them off the ball. Sylvinho clearly trusts his team's defense to pack things in tightly, patiently waiting for the rare moment to counter attack the Italians. Those chances are likely to be few and far between, however, as Albania has shown itself to be patient to a fault. Even if the Italians score early, something they have rarely done since Spalletti took the helm, Albania won't change its style of play until the final 10-15 minutes as needed.