The Joes beat the pros again.
Super Bowl betting was another disaster for the majority of big-money high-rollers as the San Francisco 49ers lost and failed to cover the spread against the back-to-back champion Kansas City Chiefs. That capped off a historic season of betting for the public as everyday gamblers produced one of their sharpest seasons to date.
How exactly did the amateurs make away like bandits during the Super Bowl? We have the answers.
Hours before kick-off, all 10 of the largest Super Bowl bets—topped by a million-dollar wager—were in favor of the 49ers, whether that be the moneyline or spread (or, in one case, Niners QB Brock Purdy to win MVP).
During the final countdown to kick-off, a few more six and seven-figure bets were reported by major sportsbooks. At least six million-dollar bets were made on the Niners and two on the Chiefs, according to industry expert Ben Fawkes’ reporting.
Yet another seven-figure wager #SuperBowl wager comes in on the 49ers:
— Ben Fawkes (@BFawkes22) February 11, 2024
$1 million on 49ers 1H -0.5 (-110) at @fanaticsbook_pb
Two more MASSIVE #SuperBowl bets were made at #BetMGM:
— Ben Fawkes (@BFawkes22) February 12, 2024
$1.1M on Chiefs +2
$1.1M on 49ers -2
The gaudy bets upheld a completely different tune than the one the public sang. Close to 80% of bets at several major sportsbooks favored the Chiefs, who were underdogs in three straight games for the first time in Patrick Mahomes’ career.
According to FanDuel’s betting splits Sunday morning, 78% of spread bets and 72% of the spread handle was on the Chiefs, along with 64% of moneyline bets and 74% of the moneyline handle.
"We have 75% of the bets on the game on Kansas City, but most of the larger bets are on San Fran,” SuperBook’s Jay Kornegay said before kick-off. “We need the 49ers right now, but not for too much.”
The Niners came out hot and took a 10-3 lead into halftime (cashing one bettor’s million-dollar Niners -0.5 first-half bet). But despite often looking like the superior team, they still could not evade the inevitable Patrick Mahomes, who improved to 9-2 when trailing by at least a touchdown in the playoffs and 3-0 when trailing by 10+ points during the Super Bowl.
While most of the public found success in major markets, prop betting also went over fairly well.
The most-bet prop of Super Bowl Sunday at BetMGM was Brock Purdy over 11.5 rushing yards. In typical sports betting fashion, the 24-year-old finished with 12 yards and barely cashed the over (though some sportsbooks had him at a closing line of 12.5).
The third and fifth-most popular prop bet–Travis Kelce over 69.5 receiving yards and Patrick Mahomes over 25.5 rushing yards—also cashed. Kelce marked his 13th straight playoff game with at least 70 receiving yards, while Mahomes’ 66 rushing yards led the team and were his most since the 2021 AFC Divisional Round.
The second and fourth-most popular player props (again per BetMGM) of Isaiah Pacheco over 66.5 rushing yards and Brock Purdy over 0.5 interceptions did not hit. Pacheco ran for 59 yards on 18 carries, while Purdy played a clean game and it was Mahomes who coughed up an interception in the third quarter.
San Francisco’s loss meant they finished the year 14-6 straight-up and 9-11 against the spread despite being favored in every game they played, tying an NFL record 20 times. It also meant that teams favored in all 17 regular-season games and the Super Bowl are now 0-4 straight-up since 2000 (2001-02 Rams, 2007-08 Patriots, 2017-18 Patriots, 2023-24 49ers).
Super Bowl champions are almost always the betting favorite to win the championship the following year as well. However, most legal betting sites have the Niners as the odds-on favorite, including FanDuel (+500), DraftKings (+550), BetMGM (+500), and Caesars (+575).
The Chiefs are +650 at FanDuel, +650 at DraftKings, +750 at BetMGM, and +700 at Caesars.
The Chiefs’ back-to-back championships ended the longest drought in league history between repeat champions (last done by the 2004-05 Patriots).
No team in NFL history has ever won three Super Bowls in a row.
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